Insights from Experian’s September 16, 2025 Commercial Pulse Report
This week’s Experian Commercial Pulse Report shines a spotlight on one of the most critical yet vulnerable sectors in the U.S. economy: construction. The industry has experienced significant growth over the last seven years, but fresh data reveals mounting signs of financial stress that commercial lenders and Chief Risk Officers should be closely monitoring.
Watch the Commercial Pulse Update
Construction Growth Reaches New Heights
Since 2018, Construction GDP has increased by 53%, reaching $1.34 trillion in Q1 2025. The sector now makes up 4.48% of total U.S. GDP, just below its pandemic-era peak in mid-2020.
At the same time, construction employment has rebounded strongly, with more than 8.3 million Americans now working in the sector — a 9% increase over pre-pandemic levels. On the surface, construction appears to be thriving.
But a closer look reveals signs of market cooling:
- Building permits have declined, suggesting future construction volume may slow.
- Housing inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to rising vacancy rates.
- Material costs — especially for insulation and drywall — remain stubbornly high, placing added pressure on operating margins.
These trends reflect a shift in the construction cycle — from expansion to potential contraction — and the financial effects are already showing up in commercial credit behavior.
Credit Stress Is Building
Experian’s data highlights a credit environment that is tightening for construction businesses:
- The number of active commercial accounts has plateaued, signaling reduced borrowing activity.
- Credit inquiries have been rising since late 2021, showing that more businesses are seeking financing — but lenders appear increasingly cautious.
- The number of new open trades has declined, indicating less credit is being extended even as demand grows.
Most notably, delinquency rates are climbing.
As shown in the chart above, the 90+ day delinquency rate rose sharply in 2022 and, after a brief cooling period, resumed an upward trend in 2024. As of May 2025, the rate has reached 0.07%, its highest point in several years.
This aligns with a broader concern: construction businesses are facing more financial pressure, even as headline indicators remain strong.
What This Means for Risk Leaders
For CROs, credit strategists, and commercial underwriters, these trends serve as early warning signals.
- Delinquency rates and inquiry volume should be integrated into portfolio monitoring systems as forward-looking indicators.
- Underwriting score thresholds may need adjustment for construction-related businesses, especially those showing increased credit-seeking behavior without corresponding trade activity.
- The broader credit environment is tightening, and construction — historically a cyclical industry — is often among the first to feel the impact of shifting economic conditions.
By monitoring these sector-specific metrics in real time, lenders can get ahead of emerging risks before they spread to adjacent sectors like real estate, materials, and heavy equipment.
Construction is still contributing significantly to economic growth — but that growth is coming under strain. Rising costs, declining credit access, and increasing delinquencies are creating a complex risk profile that demands close attention.
For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report.
- ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Experian Commercial Pulse Report Explores Implications of Rising Premiums As the year draws to a close, one issue looms large for millions of small business owners: the rising cost of healthcare. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report, small business survival may soon hinge on a single factor — whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are extended into 2026. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update The Clock Is Ticking on ACA Subsidies The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act temporarily expanded ACA subsidies, helping make coverage more affordable for millions. But those enhancements are set to expire at the end of 2025 — a policy shift that could unleash a wave of economic strain. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if these subsidies lapse, individuals who purchase insurance through the ACA marketplace could see a 75% increase in premiums. Why does this matter so much for small businesses? Because half of all ACA marketplace enrollees are small business owners, entrepreneurs, or their employees. Coverage Is Shrinking, and Costs Keep Climbing Smaller businesses have historically been less likely to offer health insurance benefits than their larger counterparts. In 2025, only 64% of businesses with 25 to 49 employees offer health benefits — the lowest level ever recorded. And while large employers are still required by the ACA to offer coverage to full-time workers, they too are feeling the pressure. Since 2010, employers have gradually reduced the share of healthcare premiums they cover, even as deductibles have risen by 164% for single coverage plans. The result? Business owners are being squeezed from both sides — by rising insurance costs and a more financially stressed workforce. The Ripple Effects Could Be Widespread If enhanced subsidies aren’t renewed, many small businesses may have no choice but to: Shut down operations Cut staff Shift jobs into larger organizations that can offer coverage That would be a blow not only to small business dynamism but also to broader economic sectors. Reduced consumer spending could hit industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, while healthcare providers face payment cuts and job losses due to shrinking coverage pools. What’s Next? With Congress set to vote on subsidy extensions before the end of the year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will likely define affordability, access, and entrepreneurship for years to come. For small business owners, now is the time to assess your coverage plans, understand your employee needs, and prepare for potential cost increases. For policymakers and industry leaders, it’s a critical moment to ensure healthcare reforms continue to support the backbone of the U.S. economy — small businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
Explore retail industry risk trends for Q4 2025 inventory gaps and credit shifts impact CRO strategies in the latest Commercial Pulse Report.
Logistics credit risk is rising according to Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse report, signaling financial strain.
